Tennis · WTA Toronto · 04/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Moyuka Uchijima
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Moyuka Uchijima
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Moyuka Uchijima
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Moyuka Uchijima
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
1–0
Moyuka Uchijima
(1 last)
- 30 May2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1558 · Moyuka Uchijima 1511
| Aryna Sabalenka | Moyuka Uchijima | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 89% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1558 vs 1511).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 50.5% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 Moyuka Uchijima (1).
- Note: Moyuka Uchijima makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Moyuka Uchijima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.4 | 12.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 54.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +6.5
Over 17.5: 87% · 1.83
Under 17.5: 13% · 1.83
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 1 – 0 Moyuka Uchijima (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 Moyuka Uchijima
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/24 French Open Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Daria Kasatkina French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Moyuka Uchijima
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Cristina Bucsa WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Maddison Inglis WTA Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Hayu Kinoshita WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 29/07 | Miho Kuramochi WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/07 | Anna Bondar WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Irene Burillo Escorihuela WTA Bastad · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 06/07 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Esther Adeshina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Moyuka Uchijima?
Our model gives 75% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.