Tennis · WTA Toronto · 04/08, 17:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Katherine Sebov
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Katherine Sebov
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Katherine Sebov
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
7-3 (W-L)
Katherine Sebov
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
1–0
Katherine Sebov
(1 last)
- 22 Aug2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1582 · Katherine Sebov 1526
| Marta Kostyuk | Katherine Sebov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 90% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1582 vs 1526).
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 1–0 Katherine Sebov (1).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Katherine Sebov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-8.6 | 12.4-10.2 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 56.2% |
| Break % | 49.8% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +5.1
Over 17.5: 81% · 1.83
Under 17.5: 19% · 1.83
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 1 – 0 Katherine Sebov (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 1–0 Katherine Sebov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/21 WTA Chicago | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Viktorija Golubic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Katherine Sebov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Aoi Ito WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 28/07 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Aran Teixido Garcia WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/07 | Camila Soares WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Hong Yi Cody Wong W100 Evansville |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Cadence Brace WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Iryna Shymanovich Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 24/06 | Noma Noha Akugue Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Jazmin Ortenzi Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Katherine Sebov?
Our model gives 76% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.