Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 17:00
Prediction: Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev
Team pages: Juncheng Shang · Andrey Rublev
Prediction summary
Winner
Juncheng Shang
Andrey Rublev
Estimated games
24.7
Recent form · 10 last
Juncheng Shang
5-5 (W-L)
Andrey Rublev
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juncheng Shang
0–2
Andrey Rublev
(2 last)
- 24 Dec0-2 7-12L
- 06 Jan1-2 11-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juncheng Shang 1471 · Andrey Rublev 1562
| Juncheng Shang | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Rublev (rating 1471 vs 1562).
- Head-to-head: Juncheng Shang 0–2 Andrey Rublev (2).
Statistics
| Juncheng Shang | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.8-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.3 | 16-13.9 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 24.3% | 29.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
H2H · Juncheng Shang 0 – 2 Andrey Rublev (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juncheng Shang 0–2 Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/24 Russia Liga Pro | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/01/24 ATP Hong Kong | 1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juncheng Shang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 24/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Dubai · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/02 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Doha · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/01 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Australian Open · Hard |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
| 19/01 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Australian Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 09/01 | Alexander Bublik ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/01 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/01 | Francisco Comesana ATP Hong Kong · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/12 | Yibing Wu Others · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 23/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/07 | Luciano Darderi ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model gives 71% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.