Tennis · WTA Toronto · 04/08, 17:00
Prediction: Tatjana Maria vs Caty McNally
Team pages: Tatjana Maria · Caty McNally
Prediction summary
Winner
Tatjana Maria
Caty McNally
Estimated games
21.3Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tatjana Maria
8-2 (W-L)
Caty McNally
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tatjana Maria
0–1
Caty McNally
(1 last)
- 13 Jul1-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tatjana Maria 1639 · Caty McNally 1526
| Tatjana Maria | Caty McNally | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tatjana Maria (rating 1639 vs 1526).
- Head-to-head: Tatjana Maria 0–1 Caty McNally (1).
- Note: Caty McNally makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Tatjana Maria | Caty McNally | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 86% (7) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.4 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-6.1 | 11.8-10.2 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +0.8
Over 20.5: 55% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 45% · 1.90
H2H · Tatjana Maria 0 – 1 Caty McNally (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tatjana Maria 0–1 Caty McNally
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 WTA Newport | 1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tatjana Maria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Isabella Marton WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Renata Zarazua WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Talia Gibson WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Katie Volynets WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 09/07 | Katherine Sebov WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Olivia Lincer WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Yulia Putintseva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Caty McNally
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Kristina Liutova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Yexin Ma WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Xiyu Wang WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Petra Marcinko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Emiliana Arango WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/06 | Janice Tjen WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 18/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tatjana Maria vs Caty McNally?
Our model gives 57% to Tatjana Maria, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.