Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 16:30
Prediction: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Team pages: Martin Damm · Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Damm
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
26
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Damm
5-5 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Damm 1537 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1586
| Martin Damm | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefanos Tsitsipas (rating 1537 vs 1586).
- Martin Damm dominates on serve: 10.5 aces and 47.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Martin Damm | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-13.1 | 14-12.4 |
| Aces | 10.5 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 80.1% |
| Break % | 47.4% | 26.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Damm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 26/07 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 25/07 | Kimmer Coppejans ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Arthur Rinderknech Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Marco Trungelliti Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 61% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.