Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 16:30
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Adrian Mannarino
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Adrian Mannarino
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Adrian Mannarino
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jacob Fearnley
1–0
Adrian Mannarino
(1 last)
- 13 Sept2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1566 · Adrian Mannarino 1491
| Jacob Fearnley | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1566 vs 1491).
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Adrian Mannarino (1).
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Adrian Mannarino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (4) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-10.7 | 11.2-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 69.9% |
| Break % | 51.5% | 55.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Jacob Fearnley 1 – 0 Adrian Mannarino (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jacob Fearnley 1–0 Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/24 Challenger Rennes | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Adrian Mannarino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Learner Tien ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Titouan Droguet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Jakub Mensik ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 13/06 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino?
Our model gives 60% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.