Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 16:30
Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron
Team pages: Hubert Hurkacz · Marcos Giron
Prediction summary
Winner
Hubert Hurkacz
Marcos Giron
Estimated games
28.7
Recent form · 10 last
Hubert Hurkacz
8-2 (W-L)
Marcos Giron
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hubert Hurkacz
4–0
Marcos Giron
(4 last)
- 12 May2-1 13-10W
- 25 Sept2-1 18-15W
- 21 Jun2-0 13-10W
- 01 Jul3-0 18-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hubert Hurkacz 1542 · Marcos Giron 1501
| Hubert Hurkacz | Marcos Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1542 vs 1501).
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 16.5 aces and 41.5% break avg.
- Marcos Giron dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hubert Hurkacz 4–0 Marcos Giron (4).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Marcos Giron | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.3 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.7-16 | 14.5-13.8 |
| Aces | 16.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.7
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 4 – 0 Marcos Giron (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 4–0 Marcos Giron
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/25 ATP Rome | 2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/09/24 ATP Tokyo | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 21/06/24 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07/21 Wimbledon | 3-0 | 18-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-31 | L |
| 25/05 | Jaume Munar French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 06/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 03/05 | Matteo Arnaldi Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Marcos Giron
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andre Ilagan ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Aryan Shah ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 02/07 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Corentin Moutet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 22/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 20/06 | Charles Broom ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron?
Our model gives 61% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.