Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 16:30
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Roman Andres Burruchaga
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
5-5 (W-L)
Roman Andres Burruchaga
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1476 · Roman Andres Burruchaga 1529
| Alexei Popyrin | Roman Andres Burruchaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roman Andres Burruchaga (rating 1476 vs 1529).
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Roman Andres Burruchaga | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.8 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-14.4 | 11.7-12.2 |
| Aces | 7 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 22.8% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Taylor Fritz ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Clement Tabur ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 11/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Daniel Merida Aguilar ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Marco Cecchinato ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga?
Our model gives 51% to Alexei Popyrin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.