Tennis · ATP Montreal · 04/08, 16:30
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Fabian Marozsan
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Fabian Marozsan
Estimated games
25.2
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Fabian Marozsan
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1570 · Fabian Marozsan 1516
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Fabian Marozsan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1570 vs 1516).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Fabian Marozsan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (3) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-13.5 | 12.1-13.4 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 71.7% |
| Break % | 38% | 28.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
Fabian Marozsan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 6-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Alex Molcan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 18/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan?
Our model gives 55% to Fabian Marozsan, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.