Tennis · WTA Toronto · 02/08, 20:00
Prediction: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Maria Camila Osorio
Team pages: Lucrezia Stefanini · Maria Camila Osorio
Prediction summary
Winner
Lucrezia Stefanini
Maria Camila Osorio
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lucrezia Stefanini
8-2 (W-L)
Maria Camila Osorio
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucrezia Stefanini 1567 · Maria Camila Osorio 1502
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Maria Camila Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1567 vs 1502).
- Lucrezia Stefanini is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Maria Camila Osorio makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Lucrezia Stefanini | Maria Camila Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (3) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-6.6 | 11.6-11 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 57% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 62.7% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 51% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 49% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucrezia Stefanini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Ayana Akli W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Elizabeth Mandlik W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Anna Rogers WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Carol Zhao WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Savannah Broadus W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Yexin Ma W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Maria Camila Osorio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Anastasia Zakharova WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Storm Hunter WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Simona Waltert Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Yulia Putintseva French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 20-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Ekaterina Alexandrova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Panna Udvardy WTA Rabat · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Janice Tjen WTA Rabat · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucrezia Stefanini vs Maria Camila Osorio?
Our model gives 53% to Maria Camila Osorio, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.