Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 00:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
7-3 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1534 · Marin Cilic 1469
| Sho Shimabukuro | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sho Shimabukuro (rating 1534 vs 1469).
- Sho Shimabukuro dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 52.6% break avg.
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 0.9-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-13.4 | 11-14.2 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.7% | 71.4% |
| Break % | 52.6% | 27.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Marin Cilic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 09/05 | Martin Landaluce ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Marcos Giron ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/04 | Zizou Bergs ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 14/04 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 51% to Marin Cilic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.