Tennis · ATP Montreal · 02/08, 18:30
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Martin Landaluce
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Martin Landaluce
Estimated games
27
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
8-2 (W-L)
Martin Landaluce
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1573 · Martin Landaluce 1482
| Nicolas Mejia | Martin Landaluce | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1573 vs 1482).
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 44% break avg.
- Martin Landaluce dominates on serve: 8 aces and 45.9% break avg.
- Nicolas Mejia is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Martin Landaluce makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Martin Landaluce | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (3) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.4-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.6-12.7 | 16.2-17.1 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 44% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
Martin Landaluce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Michael Zheng ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 15/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Tom Gentzsch ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 08/06 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 30/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 30-32 | L |
| 28/05 | Vit Kopriva French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce?
Our model gives 54% to Martin Landaluce, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.