Tennis · WTA Toronto · 01/08, 22:30
Prediction: Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones
Team pages: Varvara Lepchenko · Emerson Jones
Prediction summary
Winner
Varvara Lepchenko
Emerson Jones
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Varvara Lepchenko
7-3 (W-L)
Emerson Jones
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varvara Lepchenko 1495 · Emerson Jones 1454
| Varvara Lepchenko | Emerson Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varvara Lepchenko (rating 1495 vs 1454).
- Note: Emerson Jones makes many double faults (7.4/match).
Statistics
| Varvara Lepchenko | Emerson Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.1 | 11.4-12.7 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 7.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61% | 61.5% |
| Break % | 55.4% | 51.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 25/07 | Clervie Ngounoue WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Anna Petkovic WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clara Burel WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Maia Ilinca Burcescu WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Lisa Zaar WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Emerson Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Madison Brengle WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 29/07 | Carol Zhao WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/07 | Ayana Akli W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Linda Fruhvirtova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Dalma Galfi WTA Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 02/06 | Mika Stojsavljevic WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew W100 Gifu · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones?
Our model gives 54% to Emerson Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.