Tennis · WTA Toronto · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Xinyu Wang vs Daria Kasatkina
Team pages: Xinyu Wang · Daria Kasatkina
Prediction summary
Winner
Xinyu Wang
Daria Kasatkina
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Xinyu Wang
5-5 (W-L)
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Xinyu Wang
2–1
Daria Kasatkina
(3 last)
- 17 Jun2-0 12-5W
- 25 Jun0-2 6-12L
- 03 Oct2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xinyu Wang 1499 · Daria Kasatkina 1477
| Xinyu Wang | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Xinyu Wang 2–1 Daria Kasatkina (3).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (7.8/match).
Statistics
| Xinyu Wang | Daria Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (6) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-10.7 | 10.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 7.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.3% | 59% |
| Break % | 45.6% | 56.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 49% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 51% · 1.80
H2H · Xinyu Wang 2 – 1 Daria Kasatkina (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xinyu Wang 2–1 Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/25 WTA Berlin | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/06/24 WTA Eastbourne | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/10/23 WTA Beijing | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xinyu Wang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Madison Keys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Tamara Korpatsch French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Lilli Tagger French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Daria Kasatkina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mimi Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xinyu Wang vs Daria Kasatkina?
Our model gives 51% to Xinyu Wang, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.