Tennis · WTA Toronto · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana Arseneault
Team pages: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro · Ariana Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Ariana Arseneault
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
4-6 (W-L)
Ariana Arseneault
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 1490 · Ariana Arseneault 1530
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | Ariana Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana Arseneault (rating 1490 vs 1530).
Statistics
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | Ariana Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (8) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.3 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.8-10.3 | 11.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 61.4% | 63.1% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +3.1
Over 18.5: 71% · 1.90
Under 18.5: 29% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Prague · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jessica Pegula Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Dayana Yastremska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Potapova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Alicia Dudeney WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Ajla Tomljanovic WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Ariana Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Himeno Sakatsume WTA Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Annabelle Xu WTA Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/07 | Teah Chavez W35 Saskatoon |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 25/07 | Lizette Cabrera W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Alyssa Ahn W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Annabelle Xu W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/07 | Clemence Mercier W35 Saskatoon |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/07 | Elizabeth Mandlik W75 Granby |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Emma Dong W75 Granby |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Katie Volynets WTA Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana Arseneault?
Our model gives 65% to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.