Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron Norrie
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Cameron Norrie
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Cameron Norrie
Estimated games
24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Cameron Norrie
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1525 · Cameron Norrie 1470
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Camilo Ugo Carabelli (rating 1525 vs 1470).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Cameron Norrie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.4 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.6 | 12-12.4 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 15/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Cameron Norrie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-31 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Jannik Sinner ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/04 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron Norrie?
Our model gives 64% to Cameron Norrie, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.