Tennis · WTA Toronto · 01/08, 20:00
Prediction: Sofia Kenin vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Team pages: Sofia Kenin · Lucrezia Stefanini
Prediction summary
Winner
Sofia Kenin
Lucrezia Stefanini
Estimated games
20.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sofia Kenin
3-7 (W-L)
Lucrezia Stefanini
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sofia Kenin 1448 · Lucrezia Stefanini 1573
| Sofia Kenin | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucrezia Stefanini (rating 1448 vs 1573).
- Lucrezia Stefanini is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sofia Kenin | Lucrezia Stefanini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.6-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-12.6 | 10.4-5.5 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.9% | 57.2% |
| Break % | 53% | 65.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.7
Over 22.5: 38% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 62% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sofia Kenin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Emma Navarro WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Petra Marcinko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/05 | Peyton Stearns French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Bianca Andreescu WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Lucrezia Stefanini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Yeon Woo Ku W100 Evansville |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/07 | Ayana Akli W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Elizabeth Mandlik W100 Evansville |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Anna Rogers WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Carol Zhao WTA Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Savannah Broadus W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Yexin Ma W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Kristina Liutova W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sofia Kenin vs Lucrezia Stefanini?
Our model gives 56% to Lucrezia Stefanini, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.