Tennis · ATP Montreal · 01/08, 19:30
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Dane Sweeny
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Dane Sweeny
Estimated games
26.3
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
5-5 (W-L)
Dane Sweeny
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1545 · Dane Sweeny 1507
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.1 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12.3 | 13.2-13.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
Dane Sweeny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-24 | W |
| 22/06 | Franco Roncadelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Toby Samuel Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model gives 60% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.