Tennis · ATP Montreal · 01/08, 18:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Sebastian Ofner
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Sebastian Ofner
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Sebastian Ofner
Estimated games
25
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Sebastian Ofner
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1596 · Sebastian Ofner 1483
| Jacob Fearnley | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1596 vs 1483).
- Sebastian Ofner dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.6/match).
- Note: Sebastian Ofner makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-11.1 | 13.7-13.5 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 6.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Sebastian Ofner
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Hamad Medjedovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-21 | W |
| 20/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 18/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 62% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.