Tennis · ATP Montreal · 01/08, 18:00
Prediction: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Team pages: Sho Shimabukuro · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Prediction summary
Winner
Sho Shimabukuro
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Estimated games
25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sho Shimabukuro
6-4 (W-L)
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sho Shimabukuro 1504 · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 1457
| Sho Shimabukuro | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sho Shimabukuro (rating 1504 vs 1457).
- Sho Shimabukuro dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 50.7% break avg.
- Note: Sho Shimabukuro makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Sho Shimabukuro | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 56% (9) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14 | 11.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 10.9 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 50.7% | 28.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sho Shimabukuro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 17/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Tampere · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Matej Dodig Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Tom Gentzsch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer?
Our model gives 56% to Sho Shimabukuro, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.