Tennis · ATP Montreal · 01/08, 16:30
Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Marco Trungelliti · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
25.7
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
5-5 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1489 · Nicolas Mejia 1585
| Marco Trungelliti | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1489 vs 1585).
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 44% break avg.
- Nicolas Mejia is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.9-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-13.3 | 15.2-12.1 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 39.6% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 22/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/06 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 53% to Marco Trungelliti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.