Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone
Team pages: Matteo Berrettini · Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Berrettini
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
26.9
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Berrettini
5-5 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Matteo Berrettini
3–0
Mariano Navone
(3 last)
- 30 Apr2-0 13-8W
- 07 Apr2-0 12-8W
- 06 Apr2-1 18-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Berrettini 1567 · Mariano Navone 1489
| Matteo Berrettini | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Berrettini (rating 1567 vs 1489).
- Matteo Berrettini dominates on serve: 12.3 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Matteo Berrettini is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matteo Berrettini 3–0 Mariano Navone (3).
Statistics
| Matteo Berrettini | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.2 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 19.3-17.2 | 14.5-12.5 |
| Aces | 12.3 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77.8% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 35.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.9
H2H · Matteo Berrettini 3 – 0 Mariano Navone (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matteo Berrettini 3–0 Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 Challenger Cagliari | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/04/25 ATP Monte Carlo | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/04/24 ATP Marrakech | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
| 02/07 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 30/06 | Stan Wawrinka Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 27-25 | W |
| 01/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 31-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Arthur Rinderknech French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Marton Fucsovics French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Mariano Navone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/07 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 21/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-22 | L |
| 25/05 | Jenson Brooksby French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 23/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 64% to Matteo Berrettini, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.