Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Tallon Griekspoor
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Tallon Griekspoor
Estimated games
28.2
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
Tallon Griekspoor
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Sonego
2–0
Tallon Griekspoor
(2 last)
- 06 Aug2-1 18-17W
- 30 Oct2-1 16-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1495 · Tallon Griekspoor 1441
| Lorenzo Sonego | Tallon Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Sonego (rating 1495 vs 1441).
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego 2–0 Tallon Griekspoor (2).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Tallon Griekspoor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (8) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.5 | 1.1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-15.9 | 14-15 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 37.1% | 26.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2
H2H · Lorenzo Sonego 2 – 0 Tallon Griekspoor (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Sonego 2–0 Tallon Griekspoor
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/24 ATP Montreal | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/10/22 ATP Paris | 2-1 | 16-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Tallon Griekspoor
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/06 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 16/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 16/05 | Raphael Collignon Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Alex Molcan Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/05 | Alexander Blockx ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor?
Our model gives 52% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.