Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci
Team pages: Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Mattia Bellucci
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Mattia Bellucci
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1547 · Mattia Bellucci 1509
| Sebastian Baez | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Mattia Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-11.9 | 14.3-13.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Mattia Bellucci
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 18/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 13/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 10/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Alex Bolt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Quentin Halys French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model gives 51% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.