Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer
Team pages: Pablo Carreno Busta · Valentin Royer
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta
Valentin Royer
Estimated games
26.2
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Carreno Busta
8-2 (W-L)
Valentin Royer
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Carreno Busta 1536 · Valentin Royer 1490
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pablo Carreno Busta (rating 1536 vs 1490).
Statistics
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Valentin Royer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.2 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-14.8 | 12.6-13.3 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 52.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Valentin Royer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Taro Daniel Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 09/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Maximilian Neuchrist Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Harry Wendelken Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-15 | W |
| 22/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 15-24 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer?
Our model gives 62% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.