Tennis · ATP Montreal · 03/08, 17:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1551 · Liam Draxl 1557
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.9 | 11.5-9.5 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 41.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Toby Samuel Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Arseneault M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 55% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.