Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 20/07, 01:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Mark Lajal
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Mark Lajal
Estimated games
26.1
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
7-3 (W-L)
Mark Lajal
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Bernard Tomic
2–0
Mark Lajal
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1534 · Mark Lajal 1509
| Bernard Tomic | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Bernard Tomic 2–0 Mark Lajal (2).
- Note: Mark Lajal makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.1 | 13.5-13.5 |
| Aces | 5.2 | 7.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 31.7% | 26.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1
H2H · Bernard Tomic 2 – 0 Mark Lajal (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bernard Tomic 2–0 Mark Lajal
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/25 Challenger Morelia | 2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 05/10/23 Challenger Tiburon | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
Mark Lajal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Mark Lajal?
Our model gives 55% to Mark Lajal, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.