Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 18/07, 01:00
Prediction: Colton Smith vs Bu Yunchaokete
Prediction summary
Winner
Colton Smith
Bu Yunchaokete
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Bu Yunchaokete
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colton Smith 1534 · Bu Yunchaokete 1577
| Colton Smith | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bu Yunchaokete (rating 1534 vs 1577).
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 42.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Colton Smith | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (5) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.9 | 12.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Hugo Dellien Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Mark Lajal Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colton Smith vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 58% to Bu Yunchaokete, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.