Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 19/07, 01:30
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Spencer Johnson
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Spencer Johnson
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
8-2 (W-L)
Spencer Johnson
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1542 · Spencer Johnson 1618
| Bernard Tomic | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spencer Johnson (rating 1542 vs 1618).
- Spencer Johnson dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 45.9% break avg.
- Spencer Johnson is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Spencer Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 2-0 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-11.4 | 12.5-7.2 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 7.7 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 74.7% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 45.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/06 | Alec Deckers ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Spencer Johnson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Noah Zamora M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/07 | Stian Klaassen M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/07 | Ronald Hohmann M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Nile Ung M15 Rancho Santa Fe |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/06 | Alexander Rozin M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/06 | Jagger Leach M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Spencer Johnson?
Our model gives 59% to Spencer Johnson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.