Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 17/07, 16:00
Prediction: Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Mark Lajal
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
25
Recent form · 10 last
Mark Lajal
3-7 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mark Lajal
2–1
Rio Noguchi
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mark Lajal 1485 · Rio Noguchi 1488
| Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Mark Lajal 2–1 Rio Noguchi (3).
Statistics
| Mark Lajal | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 44% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-13.2 | 12.2-12.4 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 60.8% |
| Break % | 25.2% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
H2H · Mark Lajal 2 – 1 Rio Noguchi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mark Lajal 2–1 Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/24 Challenger Zhangjiagang | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07/24 Challenger Chicago | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/07/24 Challenger Granby | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mark Lajal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 05/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/06 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Patrick Brady Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 61% to Mark Lajal, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.