Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 19/07, 02:30
Prediction: Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete
Prediction summary
Winner
Mark Lajal
Bu Yunchaokete
Estimated games
24.9
Recent form · 10 last
Mark Lajal
3-7 (W-L)
Bu Yunchaokete
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mark Lajal
1–2
Bu Yunchaokete
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mark Lajal 1479 · Bu Yunchaokete 1579
| Mark Lajal | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bu Yunchaokete (rating 1479 vs 1579).
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 46.4% break avg.
- Bu Yunchaokete is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mark Lajal 1–2 Bu Yunchaokete (3).
- Note: Mark Lajal makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Mark Lajal | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 38% (8) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-13.5 | 13.1-10.8 |
| Aces | 7 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 75% |
| Break % | 22.9% | 46.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9
H2H · Mark Lajal 1 – 2 Bu Yunchaokete (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mark Lajal 1–2 Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Challenger Ilkley | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06/26 Challenger Birmingham | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/12/22 M25 Monastir | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mark Lajal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 08/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 05/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Bu Yunchaokete
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Hugo Dellien Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Mark Lajal Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 63% to Bu Yunchaokete, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.