Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 18/07, 02:30
Prediction: Matthew Forbes vs Bernard Tomic
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Forbes
Bernard Tomic
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Forbes
5-5 (W-L)
Bernard Tomic
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Forbes 1526 · Bernard Tomic 1513
| Matthew Forbes | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matthew Forbes dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 46.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Matthew Forbes | Bernard Tomic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.7 | 13-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 46.3% | 31.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Forbes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Jie Cui Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 12/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Trevor Svajda M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Jie Cui M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/02 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/01 | William Grant M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/01 | Dhakshineswar Suresh M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/11 | Aidan Mchugh ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | James McCabe Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 09/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaichi Uchida Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 07/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 06/06 | Alec Deckers ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Forbes vs Bernard Tomic?
Our model gives 57% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.