Tennis · ATP Bastad · 19/07, 14:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
27.6Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
6-4 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
1–0
Luciano Darderi
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1575 · Luciano Darderi 1547
| Andrey Rublev | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 1–0 Luciano Darderi (1).
- Note: Andrey Rublev makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-16.1 | 14.1-13.2 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 6.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.6 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.1
Over 22.5: 81% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 19% · 1.83
H2H · Andrey Rublev 1 – 0 Luciano Darderi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 1–0 Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/25 ATP Hamburg | 2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Ignacio Buse French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
| 14/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Nuno Borges ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 26-25 | L |
| 26/05 | Sebastian Ofner French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 21/05 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 56% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.