Tennis · ATP Bastad · 17/07, 11:00
Prediction: Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuno Borges
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nuno Borges
7-3 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nuno Borges
3–0
Luciano Darderi
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuno Borges 1543 · Luciano Darderi 1514
| Nuno Borges | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Nuno Borges 3–0 Luciano Darderi (3).
Statistics
| Nuno Borges | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.1 | 12.5-12.9 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 35.7% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2
Over 22.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 36% · 1.83
H2H · Nuno Borges 3 – 0 Luciano Darderi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nuno Borges 3–0 Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 ATP Mallorca | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/01/25 ATP Auckland | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/04/22 Challenger Barletta | 2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Moise Kouame ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 29/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 26/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Luciano Darderi ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 26-25 | L |
| 26/05 | Sebastian Ofner French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 21/05 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 52% to Nuno Borges, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.