Tennis · ATP Bastad · 18/07, 14:30
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
27.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
1–1
Alejandro Tabilo
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1544 · Alejandro Tabilo 1519
| Andrey Rublev | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 1.2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-16.1 | 13-13.7 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 32.3% | 26.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.2
Over 22.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 18% · 1.83
H2H · Andrey Rublev 1 – 1 Alejandro Tabilo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 1–1 Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 ATP Miami | 1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 23/10/24 ATP Basel | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Ignacio Buse French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
| 14/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Lautaro Midon ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 23/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 26/05 | Kamil Majchrzak French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 63% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.