Tennis · ATP Bastad · 17/07, 14:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
27.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Andrey Rublev
0–1
Sebastian Baez
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1544 · Sebastian Baez 1579
| Andrey Rublev | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev 0–1 Sebastian Baez (1).
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.4 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-16.6 | 13.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 9.1 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 34.8% | 44.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.6
Over 22.5: 79% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 21% · 1.72
H2H · Andrey Rublev 0 – 1 Sebastian Baez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Andrey Rublev 0–1 Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/22 ATP Bastad | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Ignacio Buse French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
| 14/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 11/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 53% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.