Tennis · ATP Bastad · 16/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Jesper De Jong
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
25Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jesper De Jong
6-4 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jesper De Jong
0–1
Sebastian Baez
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jesper De Jong 1557 · Sebastian Baez 1579
| Jesper De Jong | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Jesper De Jong 0–1 Sebastian Baez (1).
- Note: Jesper De Jong makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Jesper De Jong | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-13.6 | 13.9-11.1 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 74.4% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.5
Over 22.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Jesper De Jong 0 – 1 Sebastian Baez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jesper De Jong 0–1 Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/20 M15 Monastir | 1-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jesper De Jong
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Rinky Hijikata Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 16/06 | Laslo Djere Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 12/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jesper De Jong vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 56% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.