Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 19/07, 11:30
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Raphael Collignon
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Raphael Collignon
Estimated games
25.9Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
6-4 (W-L)
Raphael Collignon
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1547 · Raphael Collignon 1561
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Raphael Collignon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-13.6 | 14-13.7 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.4% | 78.9% |
| Break % | 27.4% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.9 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.4
Over 24.5: 59% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 41% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 20/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Raphael Collignon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Raphael Collignon?
Our model gives 52% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.