Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 17/07, 11:00
Prediction: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot
Prediction summary
Winner
Raphael Collignon
Valentin Vacherot
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Raphael Collignon
4-6 (W-L)
Valentin Vacherot
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Raphael Collignon
1–1
Valentin Vacherot
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Raphael Collignon 1528 · Valentin Vacherot 1552
| Raphael Collignon | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Valentin Vacherot dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 43.6% break avg.
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Raphael Collignon | Valentin Vacherot | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.7-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-13.9 | 15.4-13.9 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 43.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +1.9
Over 24.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Raphael Collignon 1 – 1 Valentin Vacherot (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Raphael Collignon 1–1 Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/23 Challenger Oeiras | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/01/22 M15 Monastir | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raphael Collignon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-30 | L |
Valentin Vacherot
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Thomas Faurel French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-19 | W |
| 24/04 | Emilio Nava ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 11/04 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/04 | Alex De Minaur ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 08/04 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 06/04 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Monte Carlo · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 24/03 | Arthur Fils ATP Miami · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 23/03 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot?
Our model gives 55% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.