Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 18/07, 13:30
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
5-5 (W-L)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Shevchenko
1–0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1551 · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1513
| Alexander Shevchenko | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko 1–0 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1).
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Stefanos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.6 | 13.5-13.6 |
| Aces | 5 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.3% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 30.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.7
Over 22.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Alexander Shevchenko 1 – 0 Stefanos Tsitsipas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Shevchenko 1–0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/24 United Cup | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Quentin Halys ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/07 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Alexandre Muller ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 13/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Hynek Barton Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 03/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ignacio Buse ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 20/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Tomas Machac ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 60% to Stefanos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.