Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 18/07, 11:00
Prediction: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Raphael Collignon
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Estimated games
27.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Raphael Collignon
5-5 (W-L)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Raphael Collignon
0–3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Raphael Collignon 1521 · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1532
| Raphael Collignon | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Raphael Collignon dominates on serve: 9.5 aces and 40.2% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Raphael Collignon 0–3 Juan Manuel Cerundolo (3).
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.5/match).
- Note: Juan Manuel Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Raphael Collignon | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.7-12.6 | 17-16.4 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 9.7 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 79.7% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +4.7
Over 22.5: 80% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 20% · 1.90
H2H · Raphael Collignon 0 – 3 Juan Manuel Cerundolo (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Raphael Collignon 0–3 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 ATP Eastbourne | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 17/05/26 Challenger Bordeaux | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 10/07/25 Challenger Braunschweig | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raphael Collignon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Casper Ruud ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Zdenek Kolar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/06 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 30/05 | Martin Landaluce French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 32-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Jannik Sinner French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo?
Our model gives 54% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.