Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 17/07, 12:00
Prediction: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
27.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
4-6 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1–0
Casper Ruud
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1550 · Casper Ruud 1560
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 48% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1–0 Casper Ruud (1).
- Note: Juan Manuel Cerundolo makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.5 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.4-16.5 | 16.7-15.3 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 71% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +6
Over 21.5: 85% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 15% · 1.90
H2H · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1 – 0 Casper Ruud (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1–0 Casper Ruud
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/25 ATP Gstaad | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Zdenek Kolar ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 01/06 | Matteo Berrettini French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 15-20 | L |
| 30/05 | Martin Landaluce French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 32-30 | W |
| 28/05 | Jannik Sinner French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-19 | W |
| 26/05 | Jacob Fearnley French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 27/05 | Hamad Medjedovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 22/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Raphael Collignon ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 63% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.