Tennis · ATP Umag · 18/07, 19:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Damir Dzumhur
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Damir Dzumhur
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1579 · Damir Dzumhur 1566
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9.3 | 12.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 2 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Damir Dzumhur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 15/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Henrique Rocha ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 23/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur?
Our model gives 61% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.