Prediction: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Andres Burruchaga
4-6 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Andres Burruchaga
2–3
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Andres Burruchaga 1470 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1537
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Camilo Ugo Carabelli (rating 1470 vs 1537).
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Roman Andres Burruchaga 2–3 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (5).
- Note: Roman Andres Burruchaga makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.7 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-13.2 | 14.1-14.4 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.2% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 49.2% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Roman Andres Burruchaga 2 – 3 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Andres Burruchaga 2–3 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 ATP Rio De Janeiro | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/02/26 Challenger Rosario | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/11/23 Challenger Guayaquil | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 23/09/23 Challenger Antofagasta | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 29/02/20 ITF M25 Rio Cuarto | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Andres Burruchaga
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Marco Cecchinato ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 12-23 | L |
| 19/05 | Luciano Darderi ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Pierre Delage Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/05 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 15/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Matteo Berrettini Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 52% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.