Tennis · ATP Umag · 17/07, 18:30
Prediction: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Andres Burruchaga
5-5 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Andres Burruchaga
0–1
Daniel Merida Aguilar
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Andres Burruchaga 1496 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1549
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Merida Aguilar (rating 1496 vs 1549).
- Head-to-head: Roman Andres Burruchaga 0–1 Daniel Merida Aguilar (1).
- Note: Roman Andres Burruchaga makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-13.1 | 11.8-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.1% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 56.8% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Roman Andres Burruchaga 0 – 1 Daniel Merida Aguilar (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Andres Burruchaga 0–1 Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/25 Challenger Modena | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Andres Burruchaga
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 15/07 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Marco Cecchinato ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex De Minaur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 12-23 | L |
| 19/05 | Luciano Darderi ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Pierre Delage Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/05 | Ben Shelton French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 56% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.