Tennis · ATP Umag · 17/07, 21:00
Prediction: Damir Dzumhur vs Alex Molcan
Prediction summary
Winner
Damir Dzumhur
Alex Molcan
Estimated games
23.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Damir Dzumhur
8-2 (W-L)
Alex Molcan
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Damir Dzumhur
1–2
Alex Molcan
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Damir Dzumhur 1541 · Alex Molcan 1551
| Damir Dzumhur | Alex Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Damir Dzumhur 1–2 Alex Molcan (3).
Statistics
| Damir Dzumhur | Alex Molcan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.6-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.1 | 13.8-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.7
Over 21.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Damir Dzumhur 1 – 2 Alex Molcan (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Damir Dzumhur 1–2 Alex Molcan
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/22 ATP Montpellier | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 12/11/21 Challenger Bratislava | 1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 23/06/21 Wimbledon | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Damir Dzumhur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 15/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Henrique Rocha ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 23/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Alex Molcan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Valentin Royer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Daniel Altmaier Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 21/06 | Murphy Cassone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Ziga Sesko ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Hynek Barton Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Damir Dzumhur vs Alex Molcan?
Our model gives 59% to Alex Molcan, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.