Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Titouan Droguet
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Titouan Droguet
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
6-4 (W-L)
Titouan Droguet
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1–1
Titouan Droguet
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1529 · Titouan Droguet 1571
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Titouan Droguet (rating 1529 vs 1571).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Titouan Droguet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.8 | 11.2-10 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 72.7% |
| Break % | 35.7% | 38.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.83
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1 – 1 Titouan Droguet (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1–1 Titouan Droguet
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/25 US Open | 2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06/25 Challenger Royan | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/05 | Ben Shelton French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Titouan Droguet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Valentin Royer Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 30/06 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Titouan Droguet?
Our model gives 51% to Daniel Merida Aguilar, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.