Tennis · ATP Umag · 16/07, 16:00
Prediction: Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Damir Dzumhur
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
26.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Damir Dzumhur
7-3 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Damir Dzumhur
0–1
Matteo Arnaldi
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Damir Dzumhur 1516 · Matteo Arnaldi 1559
| Damir Dzumhur | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Arnaldi (rating 1516 vs 1559).
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 46.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Damir Dzumhur 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi (1).
Statistics
| Damir Dzumhur | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-9.8 | 18.6-18.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 47.5% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +5.3
Over 21.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 18% · 1.83
H2H · Damir Dzumhur 0 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Damir Dzumhur 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/25 ATP Madrid | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Damir Dzumhur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Henrique Rocha ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 11-21 | L |
| 23/06 | Vit Kopriva ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Mikhail Kukushkin ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 30/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Tallon Griekspoor French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
| 10/05 | Rafael Jodar ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 61% to Matteo Arnaldi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.