Tennis · M15 Nova Gorica · 18/07, 09:30
Prediction: Gabriele Bosio vs Luca Castagnola
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Bosio
Luca Castagnola
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Bosio
5-5 (W-L)
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Bosio 1481 · Luca Castagnola 1544
| Gabriele Bosio | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castagnola (rating 1481 vs 1544).
Statistics
| Gabriele Bosio | Luca Castagnola | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10.6 | 11.2-8.7 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 64.2% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Bosio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Tomas Lanik M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Figl M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Matic Dimic M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Alejandro Garcia M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Sergio Planella Hernandez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Simone Massellani M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Adam Majchrzak M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 31/05 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/05 | Alexandr Binda M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Melios Efstathiou M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/07 | Matteo Fondriest M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Bosio vs Luca Castagnola?
Our model gives 57% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.