Tennis · M15 Nova Gorica · 17/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Bocchi vs Filiberto Fumagalli
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Bocchi
Filiberto Fumagalli
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Bocchi
6-4 (W-L)
Filiberto Fumagalli
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Bocchi
0–1
Filiberto Fumagalli
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Bocchi 1518 · Filiberto Fumagalli 1560
| Lorenzo Bocchi | Filiberto Fumagalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Filiberto Fumagalli (rating 1518 vs 1560).
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Bocchi 0–1 Filiberto Fumagalli (1).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Bocchi | Filiberto Fumagalli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.8 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-8 | 9.9-7.5 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 56.8% |
| Break % | 56.6% | 48.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
H2H · Lorenzo Bocchi 0 – 1 Filiberto Fumagalli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Bocchi 0–1 Filiberto Fumagalli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 M15 Bergamo | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Bocchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Matic Hribar M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Glib Sekachov M15 Nova Gorica |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 06/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Berto Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrej Martin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 02/07 | Nicolo Toffanin M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 25/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 23/06 | William Mirarchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Filiberto Fumagalli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/07 | Jeremy Gschwendtner M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Lorenzo Balducci M15 Nova Gorica |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Gabriele Pennaforti M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Jacopo Bilardo M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Mickael Kaouk M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Seydina Andre M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Mathis Bondaz M15 Bourg-en-Bresse · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Bocchi vs Filiberto Fumagalli?
Our model gives 54% to Filiberto Fumagalli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.